Nicholas Watt, the Guardian’s European editor, has put together a very astute analysis of the mess the Tory MEPs have got themselves into over their will-we-won’t-we attitude to leaving the EPP. He brings up an extra problem I’ve so far neglected in this blog: how will Europe’s family of mainstream centre-right parties react to the decision to go renegade?

By all accounts, the answer is: very badly. France’s Nicolas Sarkozy has reportedly told Cameron that he is “weak”. Other leaders have said that they will downgrade links with the Conservative party. Cameron will be losing a lot of friends in parties of government across the EU — something he'll undoubtedly come to regret if the Tories ever make it back into government here.

The most astonishing observation of this kind came from UKIP’s Nigel Farage:

“If the Conservatives were to form the next government they would probably serve the national interest better by being part of the family of European governments rather than being on the fringes. If we are going to stay in the EU it would be better to have a government that was in negotiations with other governments in Europe rather than one that has distinctly frosty relations. …

“In the EPP they [the Tories] are banded together with other parties of government. If they leave the EPP and form their own group they will have to form a group with parties whose political culture will provide a huge embarrassment to David Cameron back home. Poland’s Law and Justice Party’s stance on abortion and homosexuality will provide Mr Cameron with the hugest embarrassments back home.”