Just imagine - however unlikely that may seem - that the Conservatives win a general election next month. They would unavoidably face an immedite split on Europe.

First they would have to decide whether or not to sign the EU Reform Treaty, the text of which will already have been agreed by 27 national governments, or whether to seek to re-open negotiations. No other EU country will want to re-open issues, when Britain is already perceived to have won all of its negotiating positions in the IGC. This could easily turn into a major crisis, with the most Eurosceptic wing of the Tories (and of the press) keen to escalate it into a battle for withdrawal from the EU.

In fact, we know from the Tory "Alternative Treaty", which they have recently been keeping quiet about, that their leadership actually accepts almost all of the Reform Treaty's actual content. It is for electoral reasons that they are now playing up their opposition to it, but without spelling out what they would do. Presumably, they will seek some cosmetic changes that they can present as victories - but then they will have to sell the package to the British people in the referendum that they have promised on it.

Imagine them having to go out and defend a package 95% identical to the one they were so recently rubbishing! The charges of cynicism and dishonesty, that they are all-to-keen to make now, would come home to roost.

In any case, it would be difficult to see Bill Cash and his ilk campaigning for the new treaty! So the far-right of the Tory party would campaign for a "No" vote, egged on by much of their press. Even if the government won the referendum, it would cause them lasting damage.

Then, to fulfill their conference pledge to hold referendums on ANY new treaty, they would within a couple of years have to hold another referendum on the Treaty of Accession for Croatia.

And if they really did pursue their proclaimed objective of withdrawing Britain from the Social Chapter of the Treaty (assuming they could pursuade all other EU countries to let Britain have a free ride and undercut the basic standards that apply to everyone else in the single European market), they would then have to put that treaty change to a referendum too. In this case, Labour, Liberals and vehement trade union opposition, presumably mid-term of a Conservative government, would make defeat a likely scenario.

I rather suspect that the Conservative leadership would rather not come to power now, and would actually prefer to wait until this issue is settled, with the Reform Treaty ratified, while trying to milk the issue for all its worth in the meantime.