The Royal Institute for Foreign Affairs (Chatham House) has published an interesting paper written by its outgoing director Professor Victor Bulmer-Thomas, which reviews Tony Blair's record on Foreign and European Affairs.
The paper argues that Labour’s first term, but not so much its second, should be judged as a success. A key factor in this was Blair’s first term ability to demonstrate Britain’s European credentials while forging a close working relationship with President Clinton. By contrast, the second term decision to invade a Iraq was a ‘terrible mistake’.
One of Labour's first acts in government was to sign the Amsterdam Treaty. Prof Bulmer-Thomas cites this as demonstrating that Britain was prepared to play a ‘constructive role in the European Union’ (and, I would add, in reforming it) while simultaneously offering the prospect of Britain joining the single currency. Similarly, he describes the decision in 1998 to incorporate the European Charter of Human Rights (albeit non-EU) into UK law as a positive step in showing that Britain was ‘at the heart of Europe’, and he comments favourably on Blair’s role in the St Malo summit with President Chirac, which put the foundations of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) on the basis of Anglo-French military cooperation.
The intervention alongside the USA in Iraq, just when Britain shied away from joining the Eurozone, turned the tide, with ‘Brussels’ sometimes 'portrayed as part of the problem rather than as part of the solution’.
Although he praises Blair’s empathy with the US, he describes Blair’s ‘failure to try to coordinate a European response’ in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks as ‘regrettable’. This, he contends, led to divisions within the EU over policy towards the US and gave the impression that Europe was:
‘Incapable of forming a geo-strategic view, that bilateral relations were the only ones that counted and that the Bush administration could count on British support no matter what policy it adopted’.
The European dimension of Blair’s foreign policy has also been effected by the rejection of the Constitutional Treaty, which Britain supported, by France and the Netherlands. This, together with the decline in public support for enlargement, the placing on hold of British accession to the euro, and a failure to persuade European leaders to take the ESDP seriously has, he says, put Blair’s European policy on the defensive, with the 2005 British Presidency of the EU Council being ‘essentially.... damage limitation’.
He adds that while Blair can taken credit for the fact that Britain is no longer the European ‘outsider’, its influence is limited while the ‘British public is still uncomfortable in its European skin’.
For the future, Bulmer-Thomas calls for a closer relationship with the rest of Europe, arguing that it is a requirement of British foreign policy and is likely to be urged on Britain by the next US president. He opines that a governing party such as Law and Justice in Poland does not help the US by ‘combining a strong Atlanticist streak with Europhobia’.
Furthermore, he claims that:
‘What US governments want is a European Union that can make a real contribution to the international political and security agenda, and any European government with the diplomatic skills to deliver EU support will be hugely appreciated’.
In the light of this, he says that for Britain to play this role as a power broker with the US, and to be taken seriously by its European partners, it must ‘revisit its opposition to joining both the Schengen agreement and the Eurozone’.
He worries that the most likely candidates to replace Blair are 'strongly Atlanticist’, uncomfortable with a closer relationship with the EU, whereas what Britain needs is less unconditional support for US foreign policy initiatives and better balance of UK foreign policy between Europe and the US.
Labels: Labour, Tony Blair