Sarkozy must be careful to leave EU's options open

Nikolas Sarkozy's first speech in the European Parliament as President of the European Council was the closing highlight of the final Strasbourg session before the summer recess.

His speech was far more conciliatory than perhaps people had been expecting - especially in the light of his trenchant, and largely unjustified, criticisms of Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson. In particular, he attempted to re-assure those who fear that the French presidency will pursue a more protectionist agenda by saying that while Europeans had a right to expect "protection" from the EU this should not mean "protectionism". He also rejected the argument used by some French and German voices following the Irish referendum that a "multi-speed" Europe should be pursued, describing this scenario as "a last resort".

It was also interesting to hear him refer to the need for European politicians to take into account the specificity of sport when framing EU law, commenting that, just as the culture sector has some derogations from internal market rules, so exceptions should also apply in sports policy.

More controversially, he stated that there could be no further enlargement of the EU without the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty, on the grounds that an enlarged EU required new institutions.

Of course, it is true that one of the reasons for reforming the treaties is the constant enlargement of the EU, and it is highly desirable to streamline the institutions to avoid sclerosis. But simply announcing that there can be no further enlargement - even to Croatia, which is nearly ready - is treading on dangerous political territory. It effectively holds potential accession countries, hostage pending the EU resolving its institutional future, or at the very least postpones their accession to the long term.

But it is the prospect of EU membership that has provided a massive incentive to the Balkan countries of the former Yugoslavia and to Turkey to reform their political and judicial structures. In many ways, enlargement is one of the biggest successes of the EU. Paddy Ashdown famously described it as "undoubtedly one of the EU's most effective means of exercising soft power" to secure stability and reform among its neighbours. To throw away the prospect of medium-term accession to the EU would remove the biggest carrot of all in Europe's soft-power armoury.

It could also be counter-productive in securing reform. Opponents of the Lisbon Treaty might well seize on this position to say that blocking Lisbon would therefore block Turkish accession, which would be popular in some quarters. Even though Turkish accession is years away and anyway requires a separate unanimous decision and national ratification, it would not stop a populist campaign along the lines of "stop Lisbon to stop Turkey".

So, Sarkozy's position is shooting himself in the foot - twice over.

Those of us who support both the reforms contained in the Lisbon Treaty and the enlargement of the EU need to be clear that blocking the latter to achieve the former is a highly dangerous tactic. It also slams the door on one potential way out if Lisbon remains blocked, namely incorporating some of the institutional reforms into a country's accession treaty (which anyway has to address issues like the new country's votes in the council and seats in the European Parliament).

Closing down your options is not the right thing to do at the present time.

It seems as though the negotiations with Turkey on its application to join the EU may not suffer the feared "train crash" after all, following Turkey's offer to open one port and one airport to traffic from Cyprus.

Under the Ankara protocol defining the conditions for Turkey's accession, Turkey must have open trade arrangements with the EU's new members, which it had refused to do as regards Cyprus, as part of its position regarding the still unresolved division of that country. Its change of position could mark a turning point.

All this will provide food for thought when EU foreign ministers discuss the matter on Monday - especially when we consider that just a week ago, the Commission recommended freezing eight of the thirty-five chapters in the accession negotiations.

There are a multitude of reasons why Turkey can play an immensely positive role in tackling many strategic challenges that Europe faces: insecure energy supplies; seemingly intractable problems in the middle east; rising extremism trying to drive Muslims and non-Muslims apart; increasing global competition from Asia; the desire for Europe to play a more active role beyond its borders; and both at those borders and within them, the need to tackle drugs, organised crime and illegal migration.

If the summit of EU heads of state on 14-15 December fails to get Turkey's accession talks back on track, there will be a danger that, at some point in 2007, Turkey will turn its back on the prospect of EU membership. To misquote Groucho Marx, they will not want to belong to a club where too few people want to have them as members.

Much of the debate in Strasbourg this week centres on Turkey's application to join the EU and the envisaged start of negotiations on 3rd October, which Parliament gives a somewhat lukewarm approval.

My own views can be seen in the new, super-accessible record of debate on Parliament's website (eat your heart out, Hansard!):

"I fully support the opening of accession negotiations with Turkey this autumn. They will no doubt be long and difficult, but if agreement can be reached and if Turkey meets all the necessary conditions regarding the functioning of democracy and respect for human rights including the rights of minorities then there is no reason of principle why it should not be entitled to join the European Union.

"I reject the arguments of those who object to Turkey’s membership on the ground that Turkey is not 'European'. That argument was settled years ago when we accepted Turkey’s membership of the Council of Europe. Opponents of Turkey’s membership try to equate 'European' with 'Christian'. Yet Islam has played a part in Europe’s history and culture for centuries. In any case, the motto of the European Union is 'unity with diversity'. We are not trying to harmonise cultures but to find ways of working together whilst keeping our various identities. By reaching out to Turkey we underline that the EU is not based on an exclusive European identity, but of an inclusive one."