Integration and fragmentation in Europe

Following on from yesterday, the question of whether Kosovo and South Ossetia should be recognised as sovereign states is only the latest in a trend that has seen the number of sovereign countries in Europe more than double in the space of a century, with every possibility that this trend will continue. But in the living memory of our most senior citizens, there were only 22 states in Europe prior to 1918, (and two of these, Albania and Norway, were only recently independent).

The break up of Austria-Hungary and the Tsarist Empire at the end of the First World War saw this rise to 29, soon reaching 30 with the establishment of an independent Ireland. At the end of the Second World War, however, this had fallen to 28, with the disappearance of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania hardly compensated for by the creation of the GDR. This figures remained stable during the entire Cold War period, increasing only with the independence of Malta and Cyprus, bringing the total to 30.

Since the end of the Cold War, the break ups of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, saw this jump, within a decade, to 46. Recognition of the independence of Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia would bring us to nearly 50 sovereign states on the territory of Europe. And, of course, some would argue that the independence of Flanders, Scotland, the Basque country and Catalonia is not beyond the bounds of the impossible.

So, from a continent of 20 sovereign states in 1900 we could well have one with over 50 in the coming years. Of course, the majority of the states will be in the European Union. Fragmentation will have been balanced by a degree of integration. Indeed, it is this very integration that has made it plausible, in some cases, for smaller units to be viable. Arguing, for independence within Europe sounds far less isolationist when you are simply making the case to upgrade your status rather than go off into the wilderness. But, as I said yesterday, that scenario is not without problems. And what about other parts of the world where there are countless ethnicities and other groups who could seek to aspire to independence?

A world fragmented into several hundred small countries along with just a handful of giants would not necessarily be a better place in terms of getting world level agreement on global issues - not least environmental ones, it might prove even more difficult than now. There could also be an arms race as such countries seek to develop their own armies and defend themselves against real or imaginary threats from their neighbours. Much would depend on the multilateral frameworks created for integration and cooperation. And here Europe certainly remains a model.