Guardian super-poll predicts three-way tie

The Guardian has taken a stab at the notoriously difficult task of predicting the outcome of European elections on Thursday, seat by seat, using a combination of recent national polls and including an attempt to model regional differences.

In my region of Yorkshire & Humber, the poll implies a three-way tie between Labour (2 seats), the Tories (2 seats), and UKIP (2 seats).

Two other implications are striking. Firstly, if the Guardian’s poll was accurate, the Lib Dems would be reduced from their current 12 MEPs nationally to just one, with even that looking humiliatingly fragile.

More interestingly for our region, the vote here is so close that if Labour achieved a vote share that was better by just half of one percent, then the predicted 2/2/2 split would switch to 3/2/1 in Labour’s favour! It could all come down to literally a handful of votes in each constituency.

Everything to play for!

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